College Commitment Projections- March Edition, Part 1
by Alex Schwartz
It has been a while since I last put out my college commitment projections. In December, I predicted the college choices of a number of unsigned players. You can view those articles Here and Here, and the former has a link back to my original projections from September. Of the 47 players I have made guesses for, 34 have already committed and over 55% of them chose either the school I had at number one or number two in the most up-to-date version.
Here are my current projections for the seven uncommitted players in the McDonald's All-American Game. It is important to keep in mind that this is merely an educated guess and this is not to say that a kid is certainly going to one school or another. For each baller I will list his name, position, height, high school, and national rank in Northstar Basketball's Class of 2010 Terrific 125, along with a top three and another one or two for some of them. Have a look:
Brandon Knight, PG, 6'3, Pine Crest (FL), #1
Favorite: Kentucky
2nd in Line: Florida
3rd in Line: Syracuse
Watch Out for: UConn, Miami
Knight, the top ranked player in the Terrific 125 and the consensus best guard in the senior class, will be making his college choice any day now. At this point it appears that Knight's decision is going to come down to a pair of SEC programs: Kentucky and Florida. After sitting strong at one point, UConn has faded and if Knight goes out of state it will likely be to Lexington. Kansas is still on the list, but the Jayhawks have a much better show with some of the other available players. The other out of state school on the list is Syracuse, which Knight apparently re-added to his list, according to a recent report from SunSentinal.com, which also stated that Miami is out of his top five. Despite that, I am leaving the Hurricanes as a possibility because the school is so close to his home and the fact that Kansas is all but out. If he stays in state, it will almost certainly be at Florida though. The Gators are very much in player here, and Knight would get to reunite with former AAU teammate Kenny Boynton, with whom he had a lot of success. Kentucky, though, is the team to beat. John Calipari's line of one-and-done top five picks at the point guard spot and a chance to compete for a national title will likely beat out the home state school and Knight will end up in Kentucky. Syracuse could be a darkhorse since the Orange were just re-added, but this looks to be an SEC showdown with Kentucky coming out on top.
Josh Selby, PG, 6'2, Lake Clifton (MD), #6
Favorite: Kansas
2nd in Line: Arizona
3rd in Line: UConn
Watch Out for: Tennessee, Kentucky
While Kentucky has focused the majority of its attention on Brandon Knight, the Kansas Jayhawks are in hit pursuit of Selby. The stud combo guard has been considered a Kansas lean for quite some time, and it does not look like that is going to change. Selby is announcing his college choice on April 17th at the Jordan Brand Classic and that should be a nice day for Bill Self. If someone is going to steal Selby away from the Big XII power, it may be Arizona. The Wildcats have come on strong and Selby seems to like the program. He took an official visit there quite soon after Sean Miller and Co. got involved. UConn and Tennessee are two other options for Selby that may have a shot. The Huskies have been on him for quite some time and are in search of an elite point guard. Selby was committed to Tennessee for a long period of time and after it at first seemed that the Volunteers were completely out of the picture, Bruce Pearl is trying to get involved again. Whether or not Selby is interested remains to be seen. Kentucky technically is still involved, but it would be areal surprise if Selby went with this edition of the Wildcats. Expect to see the Old Line State star in Lawrence when all is said and done.
Doron Lamb, SG, 6'4, Oak Hill Academy (VA), #13
Favorite: Arizona
2nd in Line: Kansas
3rd in Line: Kentucky
Watch Out for: West Virginia, UConn
Doron Lamb might be the toughest recruit to read of the seven uncommitted prospects in the McDonald's All-American Game. One day it appears Lamb is leaning one way and the next it seems different. Over the past few months he has made some changes to his list, as Oklahoma is no longer in play, while Arizona and West Virginia have joined the fold. Kansas has always been an extremely strong contender for the New York City native, but with the Jayhawks in the lead for Josh Selby and another player—keep reading to find out—Lamb may well be headed elsewhere. There is a strong chance that place is Arizona, as the Wildcats have come on very strong and look to have made up a lot of ground. Kentucky has other priorities, but Lamb is likely the main man for Arizona. Add in the fact that the Pac-10 school is also high on the list for Lamb's AAU teammate Kadeem Jack '10, and this may be a match. Kansas should not be discounted just yet, and neither should Kentucky. Also, West Virginia has really become a player here and could end up with Lamb, though that may be a bit less likely. UConn is another school that is a strong possibility, but the status of Jim Calhoun could be an issue. In fact, Lamb's high school teammate Roscoe Smith '10 is committed to the Huskies, but rumor has it that he may be looking around. It is not easy to tell where Lamb is headed, but right now it seems like he will be going west, to Pac-10 country.
Terrence Jones, PF, 6'8, Jefferson (OR), #20
Favorite: Washington
2nd in Line: Kentucky
3rd in Line: Oklahoma
Watch Out for: UCLA, Oregon
These five schools have made up Jones' list for quite some time, and although there has been some chatter that West Virginia is involved too, expect him to pick from this group. Washington seems to be in the best shape, especially with the apparent firing of Ernie Kent at Oregon. Jones has already said that if a coach is fired it would have an impact, so the Ducks could be out of the picture soon enough, though depending on the new coach, that could change. UCLA has a shot at Jones, as does Oklahoma. At one point the Sooners were thought to be in the lead for Jones, but that does not look to be the case anymore, though, like Lamb, Jones is tough to read. The Bruins would love to land Jones and have already gotten another star from the Pacific Northwest in big man Josh Smith. All said, this seems to be a two-horse race between Washington and Kentucky. It is a tough call, but I think that Jones is going to stay somewhat local and play for Lorenzo Romar. Considering that Enes Kanter '10 recently decommitted from UW and is expected to end up at none other than Kentucky, along with the fact that UK is involved with so many players, the Huskies can focus more attention on Jones. In addition, UK is the leader for another 6'8 face-up 4—see below—so that could be a factor. While John Calipari has not had an issue courting numerous high-level players, the fact that Kentucky is so much farther from home than the other schools could be what keeps Jones away from Lexington. Should he sign with the Wildcats, it would not at all be a surprise though.
CJ Leslie, PF, 6'8, Word of God Academy (NC), #22
Favorite: Kentucky
2nd in Line: North Carolina State
3rd in Line: Florida
It is coming down to three schools for CJ Leslie, two of which are in good position to land him. Florida remains in the picture, but is a definite third behind Kentucky and North Carolina State. The Gators are staying involved, but at the end of the day it seems that Leslie will either be heading to Lexington or staying in Raleigh. Leslie was committed to North Carolina State at one point, and after decommitting it looked like the Wolfpack might be out of the picture, but that has since changes. There are some strong connections to NC State and Leslie still seems to really like the ACC program, although Sidney Lowe's job safety could be a bit of an issue. Another key factor that could help the ACC school is location, as the school is located right near home for Leslie. Despite all that, Kentucky is in the driver's seat here. Leslie has been to Lexington and from all accounts enjoyed his time there. Also, his former high school teammate John Wall went there and is the likely number one pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. If Leslie opts for North Carolina State it would not be a shock, but Kentucky is certainly the odds-on favorite at this point.
Cory Joseph, PG, 6'1, Findlay Prep (NV), #25
Favorite: Texas
2nd in Line: Villanova
3rd in Line: Minnesota
Watch Out for: UConn, UNLV
John Calipari has recently gone out to Las Vegas to see Joseph, but the late push is likely not going to be enough to crack Joseph's long standing final five. Of that group, four seem to have a real shot at getting him, while UNLV seems to be a distant fifth. The Mountain West program should be commended for its efforts in getting this far, but Joseph is almost certain to chose a high-major program. The question then becomes which one it will be. The situation with Jim Calhoun may well put UConn at a bit of a disadvantage, as it is unclear for just how long he will remain in Storrs. Some players are not worried about that, so we will have to see if that is an issue for the Canadian point guard. Another school where coaching stability could be a factor is Minnesota, as Tubby Smith is a hot name for the Oregon job. If he leaves the Big Ten school, it will be a tough blow to the Golden Gophers' chances with Joseph, though the fact that his brother Devoe is there is the main appeal. Whether that family tie will be enough is hard to determine, as Joseph has said that is not what he will decide based off of. Villanova is a strong player here, and Joseph is really the only major remaining target on the board for the Wildcats. The Big East school is quite guard oriented and Joseph seems to like the program, and also, Jay Wright has done a fantastic job of relating to recruits and getting top-tier talent. Texas looks like it is the leader at this juncture though. When Daniel Bejarano '10 decommitted from UT and ended up signing with Arizona, it freed up a spot and Rick Barnes wants Joseph to fill it. His high school and AAU teammate, and fellow Canadian, Tristan Thompson '10 has signed with the Longhorns, while fellow Grassroots Canada AAU stud Myck Kabongo '11 is headed to Austin too. The appeal of playing with three teammates and countrymen could seal the deal for the Big XII program.
Ray McCallum, PG, 6'1, Detroit Country Day School (MI), #37
Favorite: Kansas
2nd in Line: Florida
3rd in Line: Detroit
Watch Out for: Arizona, UCLA
Kansas seems to be making a bit of a push here to land McCallum, and I recently heard from a source that he could be Kansas-bound. While that is who I am putting as the favorite, McCallum rivals Lamb for toughest to read among the Burger Boys. The Jayhawks had not really been mentioned with the Michigan native over the past few months, but now it looks like Bill Self and Co. are strongly in play. If he does not opt for Kansas, look for McCallum to wind up at Florida or Detroit. UF is still trying to land a point guard in this class, and if Billy Donovan cannot get Brandon Knight, then Ray McCallum would be one heck of a fall back option. The Gators are a definite possibility for the McCallum, and so is Detroit. At first glance the school looks out of place on this list, but McCallum's father, Ray McCallum, Sr. is the head coach at Detroit. He has said he would prefer to go a high-major program, but Detroit is absolutely a definite possibility. Arizona is in play too, but the Wildcats do not have much room left and have a better shot at Lamb and Selby so it would make sense that Sean Miller would focus more attention on them. Once considered the leader for McCallum, UCLA has quickly fallen almost out of the picture. Oklahoma is the other school with any shot at the floor general. This does seem to be a three-horse race between Kansas, Florida, and Detroit and at this point I am going with the Jayhawks, though it is tough to read.
Note- all photos are from http://scouthoops.scout.com/
It has been a while since I last put out my college commitment projections. In December, I predicted the college choices of a number of unsigned players. You can view those articles Here and Here, and the former has a link back to my original projections from September. Of the 47 players I have made guesses for, 34 have already committed and over 55% of them chose either the school I had at number one or number two in the most up-to-date version.
Here are my current projections for the seven uncommitted players in the McDonald's All-American Game. It is important to keep in mind that this is merely an educated guess and this is not to say that a kid is certainly going to one school or another. For each baller I will list his name, position, height, high school, and national rank in Northstar Basketball's Class of 2010 Terrific 125, along with a top three and another one or two for some of them. Have a look:
Brandon Knight, PG, 6'3, Pine Crest (FL), #1
Favorite: Kentucky2nd in Line: Florida
3rd in Line: Syracuse
Watch Out for: UConn, Miami
Knight, the top ranked player in the Terrific 125 and the consensus best guard in the senior class, will be making his college choice any day now. At this point it appears that Knight's decision is going to come down to a pair of SEC programs: Kentucky and Florida. After sitting strong at one point, UConn has faded and if Knight goes out of state it will likely be to Lexington. Kansas is still on the list, but the Jayhawks have a much better show with some of the other available players. The other out of state school on the list is Syracuse, which Knight apparently re-added to his list, according to a recent report from SunSentinal.com, which also stated that Miami is out of his top five. Despite that, I am leaving the Hurricanes as a possibility because the school is so close to his home and the fact that Kansas is all but out. If he stays in state, it will almost certainly be at Florida though. The Gators are very much in player here, and Knight would get to reunite with former AAU teammate Kenny Boynton, with whom he had a lot of success. Kentucky, though, is the team to beat. John Calipari's line of one-and-done top five picks at the point guard spot and a chance to compete for a national title will likely beat out the home state school and Knight will end up in Kentucky. Syracuse could be a darkhorse since the Orange were just re-added, but this looks to be an SEC showdown with Kentucky coming out on top.
Josh Selby, PG, 6'2, Lake Clifton (MD), #6
Favorite: Kansas2nd in Line: Arizona
3rd in Line: UConn
Watch Out for: Tennessee, Kentucky
While Kentucky has focused the majority of its attention on Brandon Knight, the Kansas Jayhawks are in hit pursuit of Selby. The stud combo guard has been considered a Kansas lean for quite some time, and it does not look like that is going to change. Selby is announcing his college choice on April 17th at the Jordan Brand Classic and that should be a nice day for Bill Self. If someone is going to steal Selby away from the Big XII power, it may be Arizona. The Wildcats have come on strong and Selby seems to like the program. He took an official visit there quite soon after Sean Miller and Co. got involved. UConn and Tennessee are two other options for Selby that may have a shot. The Huskies have been on him for quite some time and are in search of an elite point guard. Selby was committed to Tennessee for a long period of time and after it at first seemed that the Volunteers were completely out of the picture, Bruce Pearl is trying to get involved again. Whether or not Selby is interested remains to be seen. Kentucky technically is still involved, but it would be areal surprise if Selby went with this edition of the Wildcats. Expect to see the Old Line State star in Lawrence when all is said and done.
Doron Lamb, SG, 6'4, Oak Hill Academy (VA), #13
Favorite: Arizona2nd in Line: Kansas
3rd in Line: Kentucky
Watch Out for: West Virginia, UConn
Doron Lamb might be the toughest recruit to read of the seven uncommitted prospects in the McDonald's All-American Game. One day it appears Lamb is leaning one way and the next it seems different. Over the past few months he has made some changes to his list, as Oklahoma is no longer in play, while Arizona and West Virginia have joined the fold. Kansas has always been an extremely strong contender for the New York City native, but with the Jayhawks in the lead for Josh Selby and another player—keep reading to find out—Lamb may well be headed elsewhere. There is a strong chance that place is Arizona, as the Wildcats have come on very strong and look to have made up a lot of ground. Kentucky has other priorities, but Lamb is likely the main man for Arizona. Add in the fact that the Pac-10 school is also high on the list for Lamb's AAU teammate Kadeem Jack '10, and this may be a match. Kansas should not be discounted just yet, and neither should Kentucky. Also, West Virginia has really become a player here and could end up with Lamb, though that may be a bit less likely. UConn is another school that is a strong possibility, but the status of Jim Calhoun could be an issue. In fact, Lamb's high school teammate Roscoe Smith '10 is committed to the Huskies, but rumor has it that he may be looking around. It is not easy to tell where Lamb is headed, but right now it seems like he will be going west, to Pac-10 country.
Terrence Jones, PF, 6'8, Jefferson (OR), #20
Favorite: Washington2nd in Line: Kentucky
3rd in Line: Oklahoma
Watch Out for: UCLA, Oregon
These five schools have made up Jones' list for quite some time, and although there has been some chatter that West Virginia is involved too, expect him to pick from this group. Washington seems to be in the best shape, especially with the apparent firing of Ernie Kent at Oregon. Jones has already said that if a coach is fired it would have an impact, so the Ducks could be out of the picture soon enough, though depending on the new coach, that could change. UCLA has a shot at Jones, as does Oklahoma. At one point the Sooners were thought to be in the lead for Jones, but that does not look to be the case anymore, though, like Lamb, Jones is tough to read. The Bruins would love to land Jones and have already gotten another star from the Pacific Northwest in big man Josh Smith. All said, this seems to be a two-horse race between Washington and Kentucky. It is a tough call, but I think that Jones is going to stay somewhat local and play for Lorenzo Romar. Considering that Enes Kanter '10 recently decommitted from UW and is expected to end up at none other than Kentucky, along with the fact that UK is involved with so many players, the Huskies can focus more attention on Jones. In addition, UK is the leader for another 6'8 face-up 4—see below—so that could be a factor. While John Calipari has not had an issue courting numerous high-level players, the fact that Kentucky is so much farther from home than the other schools could be what keeps Jones away from Lexington. Should he sign with the Wildcats, it would not at all be a surprise though.
CJ Leslie, PF, 6'8, Word of God Academy (NC), #22
Favorite: Kentucky2nd in Line: North Carolina State
3rd in Line: Florida
It is coming down to three schools for CJ Leslie, two of which are in good position to land him. Florida remains in the picture, but is a definite third behind Kentucky and North Carolina State. The Gators are staying involved, but at the end of the day it seems that Leslie will either be heading to Lexington or staying in Raleigh. Leslie was committed to North Carolina State at one point, and after decommitting it looked like the Wolfpack might be out of the picture, but that has since changes. There are some strong connections to NC State and Leslie still seems to really like the ACC program, although Sidney Lowe's job safety could be a bit of an issue. Another key factor that could help the ACC school is location, as the school is located right near home for Leslie. Despite all that, Kentucky is in the driver's seat here. Leslie has been to Lexington and from all accounts enjoyed his time there. Also, his former high school teammate John Wall went there and is the likely number one pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. If Leslie opts for North Carolina State it would not be a shock, but Kentucky is certainly the odds-on favorite at this point.
Cory Joseph, PG, 6'1, Findlay Prep (NV), #25
Favorite: Texas2nd in Line: Villanova
3rd in Line: Minnesota
Watch Out for: UConn, UNLV
John Calipari has recently gone out to Las Vegas to see Joseph, but the late push is likely not going to be enough to crack Joseph's long standing final five. Of that group, four seem to have a real shot at getting him, while UNLV seems to be a distant fifth. The Mountain West program should be commended for its efforts in getting this far, but Joseph is almost certain to chose a high-major program. The question then becomes which one it will be. The situation with Jim Calhoun may well put UConn at a bit of a disadvantage, as it is unclear for just how long he will remain in Storrs. Some players are not worried about that, so we will have to see if that is an issue for the Canadian point guard. Another school where coaching stability could be a factor is Minnesota, as Tubby Smith is a hot name for the Oregon job. If he leaves the Big Ten school, it will be a tough blow to the Golden Gophers' chances with Joseph, though the fact that his brother Devoe is there is the main appeal. Whether that family tie will be enough is hard to determine, as Joseph has said that is not what he will decide based off of. Villanova is a strong player here, and Joseph is really the only major remaining target on the board for the Wildcats. The Big East school is quite guard oriented and Joseph seems to like the program, and also, Jay Wright has done a fantastic job of relating to recruits and getting top-tier talent. Texas looks like it is the leader at this juncture though. When Daniel Bejarano '10 decommitted from UT and ended up signing with Arizona, it freed up a spot and Rick Barnes wants Joseph to fill it. His high school and AAU teammate, and fellow Canadian, Tristan Thompson '10 has signed with the Longhorns, while fellow Grassroots Canada AAU stud Myck Kabongo '11 is headed to Austin too. The appeal of playing with three teammates and countrymen could seal the deal for the Big XII program.
Ray McCallum, PG, 6'1, Detroit Country Day School (MI), #37
Favorite: Kansas2nd in Line: Florida
3rd in Line: Detroit
Watch Out for: Arizona, UCLA
Kansas seems to be making a bit of a push here to land McCallum, and I recently heard from a source that he could be Kansas-bound. While that is who I am putting as the favorite, McCallum rivals Lamb for toughest to read among the Burger Boys. The Jayhawks had not really been mentioned with the Michigan native over the past few months, but now it looks like Bill Self and Co. are strongly in play. If he does not opt for Kansas, look for McCallum to wind up at Florida or Detroit. UF is still trying to land a point guard in this class, and if Billy Donovan cannot get Brandon Knight, then Ray McCallum would be one heck of a fall back option. The Gators are a definite possibility for the McCallum, and so is Detroit. At first glance the school looks out of place on this list, but McCallum's father, Ray McCallum, Sr. is the head coach at Detroit. He has said he would prefer to go a high-major program, but Detroit is absolutely a definite possibility. Arizona is in play too, but the Wildcats do not have much room left and have a better shot at Lamb and Selby so it would make sense that Sean Miller would focus more attention on them. Once considered the leader for McCallum, UCLA has quickly fallen almost out of the picture. Oklahoma is the other school with any shot at the floor general. This does seem to be a three-horse race between Kansas, Florida, and Detroit and at this point I am going with the Jayhawks, though it is tough to read.
Note- all photos are from http://scouthoops.scout.com/



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