College Commitment Projections- September Edition, Part 1

by Alex Schwartz

People are always trying to get the latest information on where prospects will be going for college. Whether it is through quotes from players, coaches, parents, etc. the quest for knowledge on a player's recruitment never ends. So, just as I did a few times last year, I will be projections the college the college destinations for the crop of new seniors. I'll be taking into account many different factors and will do my best to put out the right choices, but as always, you never know! For every prospect I will be doing a top three, and for some I will also include one or two others that are worth watching. Here is part one of my projections, which includes the 10 uncommitted players ranked in the top 20 of Northstar Basketball's Class of 2010 Terrific 125.

Brandon Knight, PG, 6'3, Pine Crest (FL), #1

Favorite: Miami
2nd in Line: Kentucky
3rd in Line: UConn
Watch Out for: Florida

Knight's recruitment is a tough one to read because he does not say much about it. It looks like it is coming down to a four horse race with the programs mentioned above, though the Knight camp has not ruled out Duke, Syracuse, Kansas, or Florida State. For a while I have felt that Knight was UK-bound, but I am starting to feel like he will end up as a Hurricane. His high school is within 45 minutes of Coral Gables, and UM has very good academics—as do almost all the schools the PG is considering—something that is important to Brandon and his family. Should he choose to stay in the Sunshine State, UF is an option, but Frank Haith and Co. have overtaken the Gators in the race for Knight. Kentucky is still there and it would not at all surprise me if Knight opted to play for John Calipari, something which seems quite intriguing to him. Knight's high school coach is from Connecticut and some feel that may influence Knight to select the Huskies, and last year the Big East was easily the nation's best conference so that could be appealing. Right now I would handicap Miami as the leader, but Kentucky is still very much a major option, while UConn and Florida remain options.

Harrison Barnes, SF, 6'7, Ames (IA), #3
Favorite: Duke
2nd in Line: Kansas
3rd
in Line: North Carolina
Watch Out for: Iowa State

The Blue Devils seems to have been in the lead for quite some time when it comes to Barnes, but other programs are certainly making up ground and the long wing is by no means a lock for Mike Krzyzewski and Co. Although at the end of the day I do think that Barnes will end up in Durham, should he pick Kansas or North Carolina I would not be shocked in the least bit. KU has been recruiting Knight very heavily for quite some time and UNC was the first school that Barnes took an official visit to. The Tar Heels appear to be a notch behind Duke and Kansas, but Roy Williams' program is absolutely in play. While I do no think Barnes will opt for Iowa State, there is always the chance that he will decide to stay close to home—ISU is actually right by Barnes' house—and play in front of friends and family. The other two schools in Barnes' final six, UCLA and Oklahoma, are on the outside looking in.

Kyrie Irving, PG, 6'2, St. Patrick's (NJ), #6
Favorite: Duke
2nd in Line: Indiana
3rd in Line: Kentucky
Watch Out for: UConn

It's going to come down to three school for Irving, and they are Duke, Indiana, and Kentucky. I would say that UConn also has a shot as a dark horse, but the odds are slim. Jim Calhoun and Co. are not out of this one yet and have the best shot to land Irving outside of the other three, but I doubt Irving ends up in Storrs. The other three schools that Kyrie still lists are Seton Hall, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech and they are probably in that order. The in-state Pirates have worked very hard to get Irving, and he could end up there if he decides to stay in the Garden State, which seems highly unlikely. Aggies Assistant Coach Scott Spinelli played college ball at Boston University with Kyrie's father Dredrick Irving, but A&M is the farthest school from home, and I don't think the family tie is enough. Georgia Tech Head Coach Paul Hewitt has done a great job to get the Yellow Jackets under serious consideration, but the ACC school will have a tough time trying to land the point guard. Kentucky Assistant Coach Rod Strickland is Irving's godfather, and that is the main reason why UK is so high on the list, but Kyrie has maintained that he will not pick the school because of that. Irving is probably the Wildcats' third priority at point guard behind Brandon Knight and Josh Selby, which may hurt them. Duke or Indiana? That is the question it seems to be coming down to, and for the longest time I've felt he was going to end up at IU. The reason I'm starting to feel it will be Duke is that Kyrie has visited Bloomington twice and has not yet taken a visit to Duke, which could be working in the Blue Devils' favor as he has not pulled the trigger for the Big Ten school. A major plus that the Hoosiers do have is that Kyrie has a definite affinity for Head Coach Tom Crean. I could see Irving at either Duke or Indiana, with Kentucky having a shot too, but when all is said and done, look for him to wind up on Tobacco Road.

Josh Selby, PG, 6'2, Lake Clifton (MD), #7
Favorite: Kentucky
2nd in Line: UConn
3rd in Line: Oregon

This is between Kentucky and UConn. Period. Oregon is on the list because of the William Wesley aka "World Wide Wes" connection that the Ducks and Selby both have, but the athletic combo guard is not going to end up all the way across the country. A one-time Tennessee-commit, the Volunteers are all but out of the equation. Right now, it's probably a toss-up between the Wildcats and Huskies. Both programs are involved with Selby, Knight, and Irving and both would love to land one, if not two, of them. So why do I say UK over UConn? It is closer to home and there is a strong tie with World Wide Wes. If Selby makes his way to the Constitution State and plays in the Big East, I would not at all be shocked, but I think that Kentucky has the slightest of leads at this point.

Josh Smith, C, 6'10, Kentwood (WA), #9
Favorite: UCLA
2nd in Line: Washington
3rd in Line: Louisville
Watch Out for: Oklahoma

The Bruins have been regarded as the leader for the West Coast big man for the longest time, and nothing has happened to change my mind about that. Ben Howland and Co. remain in the driver's seat. The Bruins' stiffest competition for Smith is likely in-state Washington. It looks as though the big fella wants to stay on the Pacific Coast, and Lorenzo Romar has done a great job in keep the Huskies in the race despite all the national powers coming after Josh. If Smith does decide to leave the West, it will likely be for Louisville, which has been involved with him for a while and needs him more than ever, as one-time commit Jeremy Tyler opted to play overseas and Fab Melo selected Syracuse after nearly everyone though he would pick Rick Pitino's program. The location factor may well put the Cardinals out of the picture though. Oklahoma has made a strong push of late, and there has been some speculation and Jeff Capel has really gotten OU heavily into the running and that might be the case. The fact that Blake Griffin, a big man, just went #1 in the NBA Draft is obviously a great selling point for the Big XII school. Still, I think Smith will wind up choosing between UCLA and Washington and deciding on the Bruins.

Jelan Kendrick, SF, 6'6, Wheeler (GA), #11
Favorite: Georgia Tech
2nd in Line: Memphis
3rd in
Line: Georgia
I get the feeling that the versatile Kendrick is staying in the south. Also, there is a strong chance that he stays in-state and opts to go to Georgia Tech or Georgia, but that is not a lock. Jelan is almost silent when it comes to listing schools, so it is extremely difficult to get a feel for his recruitment. In fact, his is probably the toughest to read of all the prospects still on the board. Memphis is definitely in the running, as Kendrick left the AAU team he started the circuit with, Hoop Planet, and ran with the Memphis Magic, a program that features Memphis-commit Joe Jackson and Tarik Black, who is considered a strong Memphis lean. Paul Hewitt was able to keep Georgia's best player in the class of 2009, Derrick Favors, in-state and he will try to do the same with Kendrick in 2010. Mark Fox is new to the area, having coached at Nevada previously, so he does not have all the ties that Hewitt does in the Peach State. When Jelan does finally make his decision, I expect it to be for the Yellow Jackets, but I would not count out Josh Pastner and Co. just yet, and other schools could still land him.

Doron Lamb, SG, 6'4, Oak Hill Academy (VA), #14
Favorite: Kansas
2nd in Line: Oklahoma
3rd in Line: Kentucky

It's coming down to three schools in Lamb's recruitment, as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Kentucky appear to have separated themselves from the pack. If the New York native winds up someplace besides Lawrence, Norman, or Lexington, it would definitely be a surprise. The question then becomes this: which of the three is Doron going to pick? Right now, my best guess would be Kansas. The Jayhawks seem to be behind in the race for some of the other wings they are pursuing, so Lamb might be moving up the totem pole. Bill Self has some hefty competition from a conference foe in Oklahoma, as the Sooners are also in position to land Lamb. Jeff Capel definitely has Doron intrigued, and the program's recent accession cannot hurt. Kentucky is also very much still in the picture, but when I spoke to Lamb in Orlando in late July, he listed OU and KU as the pair of schools he would definitely visit, which makes it seem like they might be out in front. I could see Lamb choosing any of these three, but I do expect him to wind up as a Jayhawk.

Stacey Poole, SF, 6'5, Providence School (FL), #15
Favorite: Kentucky
2nd in Line: South Carolina
3rd in Line: Clemson

Poole recently trimmed his list to three school in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Clemson, so picking that trio as the ones to list is no difficult. Poole is clearly staying in the south and two of his three options are in the SEC, which leads me to believe that Clemson might be a touch behind. There has been a lot of speculation that the son of the former Florida Gator who had the same name will pop for Kentucky sometime soon, and John Calipari is believed to be leading the way in the race to secure a commitment from the talented wing. Look for Poole to wind up in Lexington.

Tobias Harris, PF, 6'8, Half Hollow Hills West (NY), #17
Favorite: UConn
2nd in Line: Kentucky
3rd in Line: Maryland
Watch Out for: Tennessee, Louisville

Outside of Jelan Kendrick, if there is a player whose recruitment is tougher to read, I haven't found him. Tobias Harris has the longest list of remaining suitors of just about any baller in the country. There are still about a dozen programs with a legitimate shot to land Harris. Outside of the five mentioned above, West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and Notre Dame are amongst the schools still in play. Kentucky has one thing going for it that no one else has, and that is that it entered the picture the latest yet the Harris camp still chose to not only keep the school in play, but really likes it. Other schools, Memphis for one, made a run at Harris due to his impressive summer, but Kentucky is really the only one that Tobias has decided to consider. UConn has one advantage that the other programs do not as well, and that is that it is the only one that is also recruiting Tobias' younger brother Tyler, who is going to end up in the class of 2012. That definitely increases the Huskies' chances with Tobias. Also, the fact that Jim Calhoun is an established coach who has developed players for the NBA is a key. Those two factors, along with others, lead me to have UConn at #1 for Harris. Maryland should not be counted out, as Harris recently spent a lot of time at the ACC school while visiting his brother and Gary Williams is making a strong push to land a wing/face up 4. Tennessee has had Harris on campus and Bruce Pearl does an excellent job of connecting with players, so the Volunteers could be the dark horse here. As for Louisville, Rick Pitino's legal situation is supposedly not impacting Tobias' recruitment, and he is another coach that is well established. There are a lot of schools still in play, but it seems to me that UConn might be the one to beat.

Casey Prather, SF, 6'5, North Side (TN), #20
Favorite: Vanderbilt
2nd in Line: Clemson
3rd in Line: Michigan
Watch Out for: Memphis

If Memphis had pushed harder for the athletic wing, he probably would have ended up as a Tiger, but by the looks of it, Josh Pastner and his staff decided they have other priorities. Nonetheless, consider the C-USA school to be the sleeper here. As for the programs that are leading the hunt, Vanderbilt appears to be out in front. The Commodores are an in-state program and the school has a fantastic academic reputation. Kevin Stallings landed a Volunteer State stud in 09 in John Jenkins and seems in good place to do it again this year. Over the past few years, Clemson has really picked up its game when it comes to recruiting, and is in serious contention for Prather. Another school in the south, the other Tigers are a viable option if Casey decides he wants to leave Tennessee, yet not go too far away. Should he ultimately make the choice that he wants to get away from home, it looks like Michigan will be the place for him. The Wolverines got Prather on campus, he enjoyed his visit, and he would likely have a huge immediate impact playing in the Big Ten. The problem for John Beilein is that it appears Prather would prefer to remain in an area not as far away from home.

Note- all photos are from http://scouthoops.scout.com/
 

What did you think of this article?




Trackbacks
  • Trackbacks are closed for this post.
Comments
  • No comments exist for this post.
Leave a comment

Comments are closed.