by Alex Schwartz

At this point, according to numerous reports, it looks as if John "Cal" Calipari, the head coach at Memphis, will be leaving the Tigers for a one of the most storied  programs in the NCAA, the University of Kentucky. The traditional SEC powerhouse fired Billy Gillispie after just two years at the helm and after Florida Head Coach Billy Donovan said he wanted to remain in Gainesville, UK swooped in and tried to land Coach Cal, and it appears it worked. Calipari has developed Memphis into one the top teams in the nation year in and year out, and even took his team to the NCAA Championship game last year, and came within a few seconds of winning. Now—assuming it does indeed happen—Calipari will have a rebuilding job at UK, as not only did the Wildcats not make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the early 90's, but there's a chance the team's top two players, Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson, leave early for the NBA. The Wildcats' class of 2009 recruiting haul is very good, but includes no McDonald's All-Americans unlike the class Cal had assembled at Memphis. It's there that I begin a piece that I've spent some time thinking about . . .

Xavier Henry. DeMarcus Cousins. Nolan Dennis. Darnell Dodson. Will Coleman. John Wall. These six players were all set to go to Memphis next year (Wall is still uncommitted but has admitted that the Tigers are his favorite and the C-USA school appeared likely to land him, so we'll include him on the list. I spoke to him tonight and he even stated, "Memphis was my leader to be honest."). Wall and Cousins are the only two of the six who have not signed a binding National Letter of Intent with Memphis, so Henry, Dennis, Dodson, and Coleman are technically locked in as future Tigers. Cousins committed to Memphis after the November signing period end, and was previously committed to fellow C-USA school UAB, but decommitted after the school wouldn't put a clause in his LOI that stated he would be let out of it should UAB Head Coach Mike Davis leave. Wall is considering Memphis, Kansas, Miami, Duke, Baylor, and North Carolina State, and again, has stated Memphis is his leader. These six players comprised what may well have been the best recruiting class in NCAA Mens' Basketball history. According to Rivals, Wall is the #1 prospect in the class of 09, Cousins is #2, and Henry is #3, while Scout has all three ranked in the top six. If you average the rankings from both of the sites for each player, all three are consensus top four players. Then you have Nolan Dennis who is ranked  #46 and #47 on the two sites, making it four top 50 players, including three in the top four. Don't forget JuCo forwards Will Coleman and Darnell Dodson, who are both four star prospects on Rivals (they are both three stars on Scout, which only has one JuCo player with four stars), meaning then would be ranked between #26 and #100 in the country, so it would be a half dozen top 100 players for the Tigers in the class of 09, assuming Wall did decide to go Memphis. Even without Wall, both Scout and Rivals have Memphis' class ranked as the best in America. Henry is arguably the top wing in America, Cousins is arguably the best big man in the nation, and Wall is the consensus top point guard, while all three can make a case for #1 overall. That haul that John Calipari had coming in next year is unheard of. Remember in 2006 when Ohio State and North Carolina brought in classes that could both be considered the best ever? They don't stack up favorably when lined up next to Memphis' 2009 class. Have a look at how the top players from each class stack up, using the rankings from Scout and Rivals (we'll use the top four from each, as JuCo prospects make it more difficult):

Memphis 2009
John Wall- Average Ranking: 1.5
Xavier Henry- Average Ranking: 3.5
DeMarcus Cousins- Average Ranking: 4
Nolan Dennis- Average Ranking: 46.5
Top 3 Average: 3
Top 4 Average: 13.9

North Carolina 2006
Brandan Wright- Average Ranking: 3
Ty Lawson- Average Ranking: 7
Wayne Ellington- Average Ranking: 7.5
Alex Stepheson- Average Ranking: 48
Top 3 Average: 5.8
Top 4 Average: 16.4

Ohio State 2006
Greg Oden- Average Ranking: 1
Daequan Cook- Average Ranking: 13
Mike Conley, Jr.- Average Ranking: 23
David Lighty- Average Ranking: 33.5
Top 3 Average: 12.3
Top 4 Average: 17.3

This clearly shows that Memphis' class of 2009 is better than the two classes right now considered by many to be the greatest of this era. Granted, OSU probably got the best player of all those listed in Greg Oden and the Buckeyes' 06 class had three one-and-done kids, just as Memphis' 09 class likely would have, in Henry, Cousins, and Wall. Memphis' average for the top four recruits and top three recruits is better than either of the other two, while neither OSU nor UNC got more than one consensus top four kid. Memphis would have gotten three. By leaving Memphis, John Calipari is choosing to pass on coaching the best recruiting class of this era. Those six players would team with Doneal Mack, Roburt Sallie, Shawn Taggert (if he stays), Wesley Witherspoon, and Angel Garcia to form maybe the best team in the nation in 2009-2010. That squad may well have even been better that the Tigers' 07-08 team that was the NCAA Runner-up.  The question now is this: what happens to these six players? And what about the Kentucky commits?

Darnell Dodson, Will Coleman, Xavier Henry, and Nolan Dennis have all signed their National Letters of Intent with Memphis, and the school is not obligated to release them from their LOI should Coach Cal leave. Kansas State would not let Michael Beasley out of his LOI when Bob Huggins left for West Virginia, but in most cases players are released (i.e. Terrell Vinson '09 who had signed with Loyola Marymount, but was let out of his LOI when the head coach resigned). So what will these kids do?

I spoke to Nolan Dennis within the last hour and the Texas shooting guard told me that his "mom talked to [the school]" about whether or not he would be released from his LOI if he wanted to be, but he was "not sure" what they said. As of now, Dennis is unsure of what he will do assuming Calipari does leave for Kentucky. Although he "hasn't talked to Coach Cal" today, he has spoken with the other Memphis coaches. Dennis said, "I'm going to talk it over with my family . . . [and decide] if my recruiting [should be] open or if I'm going to be staying at Memphis." Dennis, who was in th Boost Mobile Elite 24 Classic over the summer, told me "the big reason I went to Memphis was because of Coach Calipari," who informed me was the coach primarily handling his recruitment. Assuming Calipari does leave for UK, he said, "I might follow him or I might just be wide open [in my recruitment]." Dennis, who listed UConn, Texas, UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, and Kentucky as the schools he considered before committing to Memphis, said that those would not be the specific schools he would consider and would be totally open. When I asked him if what Dodson, Coleman, Henry, and Cousins did would have an impact on him or if he would just do what is best for him, he replied, "Right now it's what's best for me, but we had it all set as far as being the best team for recruiting." Because John Calipari was the main coach recruiting Dennis to Memphis and he even said that Calipari was the main reason he chose the school, one would think that Dennis would ask to be released from his LOI.

Another player for whom this is an interesting situation is Darnell Dodson, who had committed to Pitt out of high school before signing with Memphis now that he is in Junior College. One person who was at Pitt when he committed there and is now at Memphis is Assistant Coach Orlando Antigua. Although I cannot say for sure that Antigua was the reason Dodson chose Pitt and then Memphis, it looks as though it at least had an impact. Therefore, if Antigua stayed on staff at Memphis it would probably be more likely that Dodson stayed committed there, but that is by no means a done deal and is just speculation. Most times the head coach has more of an impact on a kid's choice than the assistant coach recruiting them. I don't know much about the Will Coleman situation, so I'm not going to try to make any assumptions.

The most interesting story of those who have signed with Memphis right now is that of Xavier Henry, who picked the Tigers over Kansas, while Texas and UCLA were also under consideration. There are a number of factors that make this situation so intriguing. First off, if Coach Cal leaves for Kentucky one would assume that Henry would likely be asked to be released from his LOI, just as most recruits do when the head coach leaves. Yet there is something more here. Xavier's older brother, CJ Henry (a former first round draft pick of the MLB's New York Yankees) is walk-on at Memphis and a major reason why Xavier chose the Tigers was because he wanted to play with his older brother. CJ had originally committed to Kansas coming out of high school before choosing to pursue baseball. The brothers' father, Carl Henry, played basketball at Kansas, while their mother ran track at KU, so there were strong family connections at both schools for Xavier. Thus, assuming he would get out of his LOI it would make sense for him to go to Kansas, a school he strongly considered and where he would be following in his parents' footsteps. Not so fast though. Lance Stephenson is expected to announce tomorrow morning that he will attend Kansas—St. John's and Maryland are the other schools in contention—and that may well be a problem. Stephenson and Henry are the two best wings in the class of 09 and bot hare likely one-and-done players. It would be difficult to see both of them going to the same school. This isn't like Wall, Henry, and Cousins, all of whom play very different positions. Henry and Stephenson are both shooting guards who can also play the three, and have somewhat similar skill sets. The odds of the two going to school together seems low. What could make this tough for KU Head Coach Bill Self is that Stephenson was really the Jayhawks' fourth priority amongst wings, while their top choice was Xavier Henry. When Henry picked Memphis, they focused on Michael Snaer who ended up signing with Florida State, as well as Dominic Cheek, who has committed to Villanova. That left Stephenson, by no means any less of a player than the others, as all for are McDonald's All-Americans. It's just that if Bill Self could have known that Calipari would end up leaving Memphis, maybe he would not have pursued Stephenson s aggressively, or would have asked him to put off his decision, and this way they Jayhawks would have still had a shot at landing Henry. Self already has Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson in the fold for 2009 so he'll have a great class no matter what, but it's just interesting the timing of all this; Calipari is expected to leave Memphis soon and Lance Stephenson is expected to commit to KU tomorrow. So if not Kansas, where will Henry end up? Memphis is still a possibility, as CJ Henry will probably be staying and he could still choose not to pass up the opportunity to play with his brother. How about Kentucky? There's much more than just the Calipari factor here. Henry's AAU teammate Daniel Orton—I've made efforts to get in touch with Daniel, but have not been able to yet—who is one of the top centers in the nation, has signed with Kentucky. Maybe Orton could help lure Xavier to Lexington, as Henry would then be going to school with his AAU teammate as well as playing for the coach he originally committed to. Orton might not even be the only familiar face for Henry that would be at Kentucky. As I wrote above, Nolan Dennis may well consider following Calipari to the SEC school. As well, I just got off the phone with DeMarcus Cousins, who said, "Yeah, that's a possibility," when I asked him if he will follow Coach Cal to UK. In addition, the big man informed me that he and Henry have "been talking about [the situation]," though he did add, "We really haven't said too much." John Wall also told me this about committing to Calipari and UK: "That's something that I'd have to look into, see how I feel about all that. . . . I'll take into consideration what school [Calipari is at]." A source has told me that there are some things that would have to be worked out in order for Wall to end up at Kentucky, but that they are things that could definitely happen. Kentucky was a school Wall had previously considered, but when we spoke tonight he said, "They had stopped talking to me a while ago." Should he decide not to go to Memphis—again, he even told me, "Memphis was my leader to be honest"—Wall said, "I don't think I think I would have a leader." Right now he is considering Duke, Baylor, Kansas, North Carolina State, and Miami along with Memphis, and he said all the school would be on a level playing field if he decommitted, as he said, "Right now, I don't have anybody that's [in] second [place on my list]." If Calipari leaves Memphis, would the Tigers be removed from contention? "I'd see about what happens, . . . but yeah, they probably would [be off the list]." It was Calipari and Assistant Coach Josh Pastner who were the main people recruiting Wall. "No I haven't," replied Wall when I asked him if he has spoken to Coach Cal today. The speedy point guard informed me of the following as well: "At the Jordan [All-American] Game [on April 18th at Madison Square Garden] I'll probably narrow my list down to two or three." As for some the other schools he is considering, Wall said of Duke that "it felt good" to meet Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski in person for the first time last night. What did he think of Duke as a whole? "Oh, it was good, it was great." Regarding Miami, John said, "I'm going to Miami the weekend after the Jordan Classic [April 25th and 26th]. . . . [It was] just set up today."

Back to DeMarcus Cousins now. There are a few factors here that should not be overlooked. First off, Cousins has not signed with Memphis as is not legally binded to attend the school, so there would be no problem with him decommitting. Second, Daniel Orton has already signed with Kentucky and if the big man does choose to stay there, it would be much more unlikely that Cousins would go there too. Both players have told me that they hope to be one-and-done, though Orton did say possibly two years. Check out my Cousins interview and Orton interview, both of which were conducted over the summer at the Nike AAU Super Showcase. This was back when Cousins was committed to UAB and Orton was still undecided. It seems unlikely that Cousins would end up at Kentucky, because both players want to be one-and-done and would not want to fight for playing time. At the same time though, they are different players, as Orton is more of a low post, defensive-minded center, while Cousins is a face-up big man who can play the four and the five. Really, it's a question of whether Cousins would want to go to school with another high profile big man in his class. It really seems up in the air right now where Cousins ends up, but I wouldn't count out Kentucky or Memphis just yet, while schools such as Rice, Washington, Kansas State, and Florida State would likely be in the running if he re-opens his recruitment.

One thing is for sure, John Calipari taking the head coaching job at Kentucky would involved much more than meets the eye.

Note- from top to bottom, photos are of Will Coleman, Nolan Dennis, Xavier Henry, John Wall, and DeMarcus Cousins; all are from http://scouthoops.scout.com/