Post-Summer College Projections

by Alex Schwartz

With summer AAU ball having come to an end and in-home and official visits starting up, I decided that I write a change of pace article. I want to provide you with some of my projections as to where I think a few of the top remaining uncommitted players in America in the class will go for school. I'll give you my projection and then the next one or two in line to land said player, as well as a little write-up on why I'm picking that school. So, here goes:

LANCE STEPHENSON, LINCOLN (NY)
Projection: Memphis
Second in Line: Kansas
Third in Line: St. John's
I really think that Memphis is the team to beat to land Lance Stephenson, but Kansas and St. John's certainly have a legitimate shot as well. Some schools that Lance is considering may be lukewarm on getting him, as there are some character concerns. Meanwhile, other schools such as Memphis, Kansas, St. John's, and USC may be more likely to put these aside. John Calipari has dealt with players such as Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey quite well. Bill Self is bringing in Marcus and Markieff Morris this year who are by no means angels. St. John's has already started a New York City pipeline by hiring Kimani Young, formerly of the New Heights AAU program, and Oswald "Oz" Cross, formerly of the NY Panthers AAU program, and by getting a commitment from Omari Lawrence. I think that Memphis, Kansas, St. John's, and USC are the four teams with the best shots and landing "Born Ready," in that order.

JOHN WALL, WORD OF GOD (NC)
Projection: Memphis
Second in Line: Baylor
Nope, that's not a mistake. I do no think that John Wall will go to Baylor despite the hiring of former AAU coach with D-One Sports (NC) Dwon Clifton. Yes, Baylor has a huge shot to get him and I would not be surprised if the talented point guard picked Scott Drew's program, but I just have a gut feeling that Wall will go to Memphis. If he was so sold on Baylor when Clifton got a job there, was hasn't he committed already?

XAVIER HENRY, PUTNAM CITY (OK)
Projection: Memphis
Second in Line: Kansas
It's going to come down to Memphis and Kansas in the battle to land Xavier Henry, and I feel that he really could give John Calipari a recruiting class that includes arguably the nation's three best players. I was leaning towards Kansas, but with Xavier's older brother CJ Henry choosing to walk-on at Memphis, I think that the pendulum has swung towards the Tigers. It can go either way, but I'm almost positive that Henry is going to one of these two schools.

DERRICK FAVORS, SOUTH ATLANTA (GA)
Projection: Georgia Tech
Second in Line: Georgia
Considering that the general thought is that Favors will stay in the Peach State, the logical top two would be the Yellow Jackets and the Bulldogs. It really can go either way, but I'm going with Paul Hewitt and Co. because they have been by far the more successful program in recent years.

JORDAN HAMILTON, DOMINGUEZ (CA)
Projection: Texas
Second in Line: UConn
Third in Line: USC
Hamilton has been considered a Texas lean for quite some time, so I'm sticking with the Longhorns as his likely college destination. UConn seems to be coming on strong, but I think that Rick Barnes' program is the one to beat for Hamilton. USC has not been mentioned as much with Jordan, but I think the Trojans are a dark horse here and could possibly pull it out and snatch the talented small forward.

KENNY BOYNTON, AMERICAN HERITAGE (FL)
Projection: Florida
Second in Line: Duke
Prior to speaking with Boynton at the Boost Mobile Elite 24 Classic (the interview will be up soon), I thought that Boynton was going to go to Duke, but our talk changed my mind. I now feel that the talented combo guard will stay in state and play for Billy Donovan at Florida. Duke is probably second in line to get Boynton, while Memphis, Texas, and Georgia Tech are just outside that duo.

ABDUL GADDY, BELLARMINE PREP (WA)
Projection: Arizona
Second in Line:
Washington
Third in Line: Memphis
Gaddy had been to committed to Arizona, but chose to re-open his recruitment after all the coaching changes at the school. I still think that the Wildcats are the team to beat for two reasons. First off, he told me that Arizona is his dream school, and most people jump at the chance to go to the college that have always wanted to attend. As well, I think that if Gaddy had any major, serious reservations about the Pac-10 power, he would not have named them in his final five. I'm putting Washington at number two because it's the in-state school. Memphis checks in at number three, despite the recruiting violation involving the Tigers and being the only non-Pac-10 school on his list. UCLA and Oregon is the other pair of schools that may be able to get Gaddy.

DOMINIC CHEEK, ST. ANTHONY'S (NJ)
Projection: Villanova
Second in Line: Indiana
It's been said for a while that Villanova is the school to beat for Cheek, and while I still say it is, Indiana has a real shot at doing so. The Wildcats likely still have a leg up, but by Tom Crean hiring St. Anthony's graduate Roshown McLeod to his staff, he has thrust the Hoosiers well into the mix to get Cheek (see this article on ZagsBlog.net for more). Signs seem to be pointing to this coming down to a battle between Villanova and Indiana.

RYAN KELLY, RAVENSCROFT (NC)
Projection: Vanderbilt
Second in Line: Wake Forest
Third in Line: Georgetown
Ryan Kelly's final six are all highly regarded academic schools with great basketball programs: Duke, Georgetown, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, and Wake Forest. In my recent interview with Kelly, he told me that location is not a factor, but it does have to be mentioned that half the schools on his list are in the Tar Heel State. Interestingly, all of the schools besides UNC are private schools and Duke is the only one yet to offer. Thus, I will rule those two out. Notre Dame does not have quite the same academic prestige as the other remaining schools, so I'm knocking the Fighting Irish off the list too, leaving Georgetown, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt. Yes, Kelly did say that location will not play a factor, but his list does say something else, but it may well be true that being an in-state school won't help the Demon Deacons. Vanderbilt is somewhat close to home and has a great academic reputation, and is in fact bringing in a top-notch student athlete this year in Lance Goulbourne '08 of The Hun School (NJ). I think that Kevin Stallings and Co. may well be the final choice from Kelly. Wake Forest gets the nod at number two because it's somewhat close to home, while Georgetown is much farther away. All six of the schools Kelly has left on his list do have a real shot at landing him, so much is this is guesswork.

DANIEL ORTON, BISHOP McGUINNESS (OK)
Projection: Kentucky
Second in Line: Oklahoma
Third in Line: Texas
Everyone seems to think that Daniel Orton is going to Kentucky, and he has made comments that seem to point in the Wildcats' direction. Behind Billy Gillespie's program there is no clear order of the rest of his final seven, which is UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Ohio State, and UConn. I'm putting the number two and three schools as Oklahoma and Texas, just based off location. Kentucky has a huge lead in the race to get Orton, and I just can't see anyone pulling him away from the SEC school.

KEITH "TINY" GALLON, WORD OF GOD (NC)
Projection: Oklahoma
Second in Line: Mississippi State
It's nearly a foregone conlcusion that Keith "Tiny" Gallon will go to Oklahoma. The big man even told me that the school has "a huge lead," so all signs point to the Sooners winding up with Gallon. Mississippi State was labeled as the favorite for a while, so I'm putting the Bulldogs in at number two. I can't see Gallon going anywhere besides Oklahoma though.

AARIC MURRAY, GLEN MILLS (PA)
Projection: West Virginia
Second in Line: Villanova
Third in Line: Temple
Ever since Aaric Murray gave me his school list, and the first four schools he mentioned were "Big Five" colleges and were followed by West Virginia, I've thought that it will come down to WVU and Villanova, with Temple, La Salle, and St. Joseph's having an outside chance. I don't see Murray going to a mid-major school, so that would rule out all but WVU and Villanova. I would have given the Wildcats the advantage, but the recent commitment of big-time big man Mouphatou Yarou could put a damper in Villanova's hopes to land Murray, a great post player. That leads me to thinking that the Mountaineers will end up with the Pennsylvania star but do not count out anyone the "Big Five" besides UPenn.

TERRENCE BOYD, TBD
Projection: USC
Second in Line: Kentucky
Terrence Boyd told me in an interview that USC and Kentucky were his top two, hence them being the duo I list. I got the vibe from that conversation that the Trojans had an advantage over the Wildcats. It really can go either way, but I'd putting USC slightly ahead of Kentucky right now.

KEVIN PARROM, SOUTH KENT (CT)
Projection: St. John's
Second in Line: Xavier
Xavier keeps popping up with Kevin Parrom, but St. John's is the school to beat. Parrom is close friends with AAU and high school teammate Omari Lawrence '09, who recently committed to the Red Storm. Lawrence is following Parrom from St. Raymond's to South Kent, and I see Parrom joining Lawrence back in the Big Apple at St. John's. The hiring of the duo's AAU coach with the NY Panthers, Oswald "Oz" Cross, will help too.

JAMIL WILSON, HORLICK (WI)
Projection: Michigan State
Second in Line: Marquette
Third in Line: Wisconsin
For a while the thinking was that it would be hard to pry Wilson away from in-state powers Wisconsin and Marquette, but Michigan State seems to have become the leader in the race to get Jamil Wilson. Nothing is set in stone though, and because of the previous thought that Wilson would likely stay in the Badger State, I have Marquette and Wisconsin behind Michigan State. The order of those two schools could really go either way, but I'm putting the Golden Eagles slightly ahead of the Badgers. Duke is a school to watch out for as well, and the Blue Devils have a real shot to grab Wilson.

RODNEY WILLIAMS, ROBBINSDALE COOPER SR (MN)
Projection: Minnesota
Second in Line: Wisconsin
Third in Line: Miami
The Golden Gophers are the school to beat to land Rodney Williams, and are the clear choice to project as his likely school. Wisconsin is somewhat near Minnesota, so I'm putting the Badgers in at number two. Miami is heavily interested in Williams, and thus I'm giving the Hurricanes the third spot on the list. Expect Tubby Smith to end up getting Williams.

TERRELL VINSON, MONTROSE CHRISTIAN (MD)
Projection: Maryland
Second in Line:
Villanova
Third in Line: Duke
It's seems like Terrell Vinson will end up at Maryland. It just makes the most sense based off the schools recruiting him need-wise and also location-wise. Duke has Kenny Boynton and Ryan Kelly well above Vinson as priorities, and Villanova would rather have Dominic Cheek or Aaric Murray, while Georgetown does not really seem like a school that Vinson would end up at for a variety of reasons such as the team already having a commitment from Hollis Thompson '09, who plays the same position as Terrell. I am giving the edge to the Wildcats above the Blue Devils for the number three spot, while the Hoyas are on the outside looking in at the top three. Terrell will most likely end up as a Terrapin when it's all said and done.


Here are a few other players for whom I will just give a projection, without listing any other schools with a chance, or reasoning. I'm just going to list them:

RENARDO SIDNEY, FAIRFAX (CA)-
USC
CLARENCE TRENT, FINDLAY PREP (LV)- UNLV
JOHNNIE LACY, NOTRE DAME PREP (MA)- Marquette
SHAWN KEMP, JR., CHEROKEE (GA)- Georgia Tech
KARRON JOHNSON, MT. ZION CHRISTIAN ACADEMY (NC)-
Seton Hall
CHRIS BRASWELL, HARGRAVE MILITARY ACADEMY (VA)- Georgetown


Notes- all photos are from http://scouthoops.scout.com/, and Rivals was used a source for some information
 

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